Georg Sebastian Völker

I am a research assistant at the Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research and work on climate prediction for the Baltic Sea region. I focus in particular on the climate models used and their impact on the lives of people in the region.

• dynamics of the atmosphere
• dynamics of the ocean
• regional and global climate dynamics and variability
• cliamte communication
• science-policy interfaces

Dynamics of the Earth system - from weather to climate

The Earth system, with its atmosphere, oceans, land and ice masses, and almost ubiquitous flora and fauna, is one of the most complex systems we know. Yet we are constantly dependent on it. Not only does it form the basis of our lives, it also shapes our culture, our society and its development, and our prosperity.

Understanding the climate is therefore crucial for our society, both on a large and small scale. Global Earth system models are often created with grid sizes of more than 100 km and cannot cover regional changes. In addition, so-called parameterizations, i.e., the integration of simplified models of effects that the model cannot represent, are often subject to uncertainty.

That is why I focus on three core topics

1. Model development and the representation of subgrid-scale dynamics are key components in improving the accuracy of our models and understanding and reducing the systematic uncertainties associated with them.
2. Calibrating our Earth system model is the most important step in understanding the relationships within the system and reducing errors.
3. Using calibrated models, we can apply global climate predictions to the Baltic Sea region and make more accurate predictions for local conditions. The primary focus here is on the practical usefulness of the predictions.

Science, policy and society

The climate, especially in its interaction with human life, is a complex system comprising all kinds of interdependent phenomena. Due to the interdependence of these parts of the system, it is usually difficult to assess the effects of individual parts on the system as a whole. Various perspectives are needed to approach this. Scientific perspectives offer an important source of information for individuals, businesses, and governments when making decisions about how to act.

The communication of current knowledge and specialist content is therefore particularly important. One of the key prerequisites is trust in information sources. It should also be noted that the communicated content is usually only passed on to a small group; many people only come into contact with the information indirectly, in a form that has already been processed and reproduced. Thus, the socio-political context has a major influence on how the information is perceived and used.

Interfaces between politics and science are a special form of science communication. They are subject to the same conceptual conditions. Consideration of the socio-political context and transparent communication with politics, administration, business, and the public that is adapted to the context are important aspects of this work. Institutional interfaces between science, society, and politics are therefore tailored to the relevant context in terms of their effectiveness right from the design stage. For example, the interface needs to be equipped with appropriate resources and guidelines or specifications.